FedEx (FDX) Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based): -27.27% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


FDX FedEx Corp FDX
83 GF Score
Price $316.83
GF Value $231.61
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is FedEx Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)?

FedEx FDX -0.13% 83 Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is -27.27% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates FDX with a GF Score™ of 83/100 and a GF Value™ of $231.61 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) - Current Price) / Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based).

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

As of today (2026-06-24), FedEx's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars. FedEx's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $248.94 and current share price is $316.83. Consequently,

FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model is -27.27%.

FDX vs UPS, JBHT, FDXFw: Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) Comparison

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

FedEx Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) falls into.


FDX
83GF Score
FedEx Corp FDX
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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FedEx Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) Calculation

FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) for today is calculated as

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(248.94-316.83)/248.94
=-27.27 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

The intrinsic value is calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow.

What does a Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of -27.27% mean?
FedEx (FDX) has a Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of -27.27% as of Jun. 24, 2026. Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF Earnings price. View historical data on FedEx.
Is FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) too high?
FedEx's current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is -27.27%. Overall, FedEx has a GF Score™ of 83/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) compare to UPS and JBHT?
FedEx's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of -27.27% can be compared against companies in the Transportation industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) for a Transportation company?
A good Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) mean?
A high Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF Earnings price. View historical data on FedEx. FedEx's current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is -27.27%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is FedEx stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, FedEx (FDX) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $231.61, compared to a current price of $316.83 — trading 36.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is -27.27%. FedEx's overall GF Score™ is 83/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) calculated?
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For FedEx (FDX), the current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is -27.27% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is FedEx (FDX) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, FedEx stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $316.83 is trading 36.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $231.61. GuruFocus considers FedEx to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FDX:

  • Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based): -27.27%
  • GF Value™: $231.61 vs. price of $316.83 (36.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 83/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FDX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

FedEx Business Description

Address 942 South Shady Grove Road, Memphis, TN, USA, 38120
FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. Following the June 2026 spinoff of FedEx Freight (less-than-truckload shipping), the firm's Federal Express segment—which houses the core package delivery operations—makes up more than 95% of total revenue (previously 87%). The remainder stems from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016, boosting its presence across Europe. TNT was previously the fourth-largest global parcel delivery provider.
83GF Score

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Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$316.83
Price
$231.61
GF Value